ANALISIS PENGARUH PDB RIIL, CADANGAN DEVISA DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP IMPOR NONMIGAS DI INDONESIA

Kuswantoro Kuswantoro, Gita Rosianawati

Abstract


ABSTRACT
The aim of this research is to study the influence of Gross Domestic Product, foreign exchange reserve and Rupiah Exchange Rate to Indonesian import of non-oil and gas during the period of first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2013. This research uses quarterly data according to Indonesian financial statistics data, publiesed by Bank of Indonesia. This research uses Error Correction Model (ECM) method, developed by Engle and Granger. The
research result indicates that in the short run, Gross Domestic Product and Rupiah exchange rate have positive influence and significant to the import of Indosensian non-oil and gas, where as in the long run those three independent variable show have positive influence and significant to the import of Indosensian non-oil and gas.
Key Word: Import of Non-oil and gas, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Foreign Exchange Reserve and Rupiah Exchange Value
ABSTRAK
Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh dari Produk Domestik Bruto, cadangan devisa, dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap impor non migas Indonesia dalam periode kuartal 1 tahun 2003 sampai dengan kuartal 4 tahun 2013. Penelitian ini menggunakan data kuartal berdasarkan data sataistika keuangan Indonesia yang di terbitkan oleh Bank Indonesia.
Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Error Correction Model (ECM) yang dikembangkan oleh Engle dan Granger. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, Produk Domestic Bruto dan nilai tukar Rupiah memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap impor non migas Indonesia, sedangkan dalam jangka panjang ketiga variabel independen tersebut menunjukkan pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap impor non migas Indonesia.
Kata Kunci : Import non migas, Produk Domestik Bruto, Cadangan
Devisa, Nilai tukar rupiah 


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.35448/jequ.v6i2.4342

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