Sensitivity Analysis of Investment and NPV Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation in Asphalt Mixing Plant (AMP) Industry

Wachid Hasyim; Ayu Krisma Wardani

doi:10.36055/fondasi.v12i2.19784

Sensitivity Analysis of Investment and NPV Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation in Asphalt Mixing Plant (AMP) Industry

Wachid Hasyim, Ayu Krisma Wardani

Abstract

The availability of proper transportation infrastructure in cities / districts with high population growth will support development growth. Development growth can be seen at the growth of the regional economic level, so that economic growth is strongly supported by the development of road transportation facilities. National development in the transportation sector begins with the implementation of roads as infrastructure that strongly supports the achievement of national development goals. Road planning standards state that for road pavement layers must meet certain classifications and specifications. Thus, to be able to meet the needs of materials with adequate quality and quantity, a supporting industry is needed, namely in the form of industry or asphalt mixing plants (AMP). This research is reviewed from the financial aspect which aims to analyze the feasibility of investing in asphalt mixing plants (AMP). Based on the Investment Feasibility Analysis, the NPV (Net Present Value) value is IDR. 30,777,082,259.61, BCR (Benefit Cost Ratio) is 1.39, IRR (Internal Rate of Return) is 30%, PP (Payback Period) is 4.16 years. Based on sensitivity analysis, the value of sensitivity investment at IDR. 73,386,171,697.09. NPV value based on monte carlo simulation with two scenarios obtained values of IDR. 27,553,320,897.33 and IDR. 23,719,088,232.49 respectively.

Keywords

Investment Feasibility Analysis, Net Present Value, Benefit Cost Ratio, Payback Period, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation

Full Text:

PDF

References

R. Sulistyorini, "Peran Infrastruktur Transportasi dalam Pengembangan Provinsi Lampung," Jurnal Transportasi, vol. xxi, no. 1, pp. 55-62, 2021.

R. Kristiano, Suryana and S. U, "Perkembangan Sarana dan Prasarana Transportasi dalam Hubungannya Dengan Tingkat Perekonomian Masyarakat Di Desa Kolang Kecamatan Kuwus Barat Kabupaten Manggarai Barat Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur," Jurnal Geofrafi Gea, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 131-140, 2019.

Kemenhub, "Transportasi Sebagai Pendukung Sasaran Pembangunan Nasional," kemenhub, 03 10 2017. [Online]. Available: https://dephub.go.id/post/read/transportasi-sebagai-pendukung-sasaran-pembangunan-nasional. [Accessed 26 04 2023].

Dinaspupr, "Dinas PUPR Kota Banda Aceh," 12 07 2020. [Online]. Available: https://dinaspupr.bandaacehkota.go.id/2020/07/12/asphalt-mixing-plant/. [Accessed 25 04 2023].

F. Rahmansyah, "Evaluasi Investasi Asphalt Mixing Plant," Universitas Islam Indonesia,UII, Yogyakarta, 2002.

D. I. Anggraeni and S. Wibowo, "Evaluasi Investasi Asphalt Mixing Plant (Kasus Pada C.V. Ratna Base Camp Pacitan Jawa Timur)," Jurusan Teknik Sipil, Fakultas Teknik Sipil dan Perencanaan, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta, 2001.

M. Giatman, Ekonomi Teknik, Jakarta: PT. Raja Grafindo Persada, 2006.

J. Tjakra and J. B. Mangare, "Analisa Kelayakan Investasi Asphalt Mixing Plant (Studi kasus : PT. Lumbung Berkat Indonesia base camp Molobok)," TEKNO SIPIL, vol. 12, no. 61, pp. 40-47, 2014.

B. Putranto, D. Trijanto and M. Efendi, "Kelayakan Finansial Proyek Pembangunan Perumahan The City Inside Kota Malang," Prokons, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 73-78, 2019.

A. Hasugian. I, F. Ingrid and K. Wardana, "Analisis Kelayakan dan Sensitivitas : Studi Kasus UKM Mochi Kecamatan Medan Selayang," Buletin Utama Teknik, vol. xv, no. 2, pp. 159-164, 2020.

IBM, "What is Monte Carlo simulation?," IBM, [Online]. Available: https://www.ibm.com/topics/monte-carlo-simulation. [Accessed 27 April 2023].

AWS, "aws amazon," amazon, [Online]. Available: https://aws.amazon.com/id/what-is/monte-carlo-simulation/. [Accessed 28 April 2023].

M. Stanojev and D. Stojic, "Reliability Analysis of Structures," Architecture and Civil Engineering, vol. xii, no. 3, pp. 265-272, 2014.

A. Prayogo, H. Suprayitno and H. Budianto, "Penentuan Kriteria dalam Pemilihan Jenis Perkerasan pada Dataran Tinggi di Kabupaten Trenggalek," ITS JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, vol. 33, no. 1, 2018.

M. Priyo, "Studi Kelayakan Investasi Proyek Perumahan pada Proyek Pembangunan Perumahan Aura Tirta Graha Banjarnegara," Jurnal Ilmiah Semesta Teknika, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 120-132, 2012.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.36055/fondasi.v12i2.19784